Show the income

Take the cash, or put it back in

Type a weekly paycheck. See how much 50/50 MSTY + WNTR money that takes. Then compare taking the cash out (withdraw) with putting it back into shares (compound).

You can use the real recent one-month payout rate, or a labeled guess of 1% of NAV per week. NAV is the dollar value of the shares. Bitcoin and MSTR what-if paths are still here. The paycheck math is the main story.

Weekly income target

How we estimate the payout

Recent one-month payout ratesUses the last month of cash payouts for a 50/50 mix, shown as a yearly rate. Live prices when we have them, otherwise the starter file. The chart keeps that starting rate the same the whole way.1% of NAV per week (a guess)A guess, not a promise. Week 1 pays 1% of the starting money ($10,000 a week means $1,000,000). If you take the cash out, each later week pays 1% of the book’s current value. Getting 1% every week forever is a big ask.

Horizon (years)

Bitcoin and MSTR what-ifFlat Bitcoin

BaseBitcoin’s price stays flat. The book’s value mostly falls because the cash payout comes out of the share price. That is the return-of-capital view: part of the payout is your own money.Bitcoin power-law curveBitcoin follows a published power-law curve, pinned to today’s price so it does not jump overnight. A power law is a math curve fitted to Bitcoin’s long history. No extra jump for joining the S&P 500.Power-law curve + MSTR joins the S&PSame Bitcoin path, plus a one-time +12% jump in MSTR on the date you pick. That date is an example, not a real announcement.

MSTY 1-month payout: 86.4%
WNTR 1-month payout: 99.8%
MSTY price: $16.48
WNTR price: $15.80

Loading prices… As-of Sep 20, 2026. Starter prices from today_50k_allocations.csv (2026-09-20). The performance window is 2025-10-16 through 2026-09-17. This is not a live quote.

Money for a 50/50 mix

50/50 · 1%/week

$1,000,000

Money needed under the 1% of starting money per week guess: $10,000 ÷ 1% = $1,000,000. Then the tool splits that into 50/50 MSTY and WNTR shares at live prices, or starter prices if live prices are missing. This is a guess you picked, not a promise.

Plain label: 1% every week forever is a big ask (about 52% if you just add the weeks up). YieldMax cash is often return of capital (ROC): part of the payout is your own money coming back. If you withdraw, each week takes 1% of the book’s current value, not a fixed dollar amount, so the paycheck shrinks if that value falls. Week 1 matches your target because of how the guess is built.

MSTY50%

30,340 sh

$500,000

WNTR50%

31,646 sh

$500,000

Guessed weekly rate

1.0%

1% of the book’s current value each week (a guess). Adding the weeks is about 52% a year.

Bitcoin vs its long curve

0.533×

Today’s price $81,273 divided by the power-law curve $152,420 on Sep 20, 2026. The curve is a math fit to history, not a promise.

Withdraw · the paycheck path

Take the cash out

Year-5 share value

$72,575

Sep 21, 2031

Cash withdrawn

$927,425

Left the book. It is not added back into the share value.

Share value + cash taken out: $1,000,000

Compound · buy shares, never sell

Put the cash back in

Year-5 share value

$1,000,000

Sep 21, 2031

Income reinvested

$2,610,000

Stayed in the book and bought the lighter fund. Already inside the share value.

The ending share value is the compound result. The cash never left the book.

Withdraw vs compound

Base · 1%/week. The lines compare share value when you put the cash back in, versus share value plus the cash you took out. Every date includes the year.

Share counts when you put cash back in

Compound uses forward-balance: each week buys only the lighter half of the 50/50 mix. Shares rise or stay the same. The tool never sells. If you withdraw, the share counts stay at the start.

Each year-end: take cash vs put it back (5 years)

One row per year from the weekly model. Every date includes the year. When you compound, share counts only rise or stay the same. When you withdraw, share counts stay at the start.

Year	Date	Withdraw value	Cash taken	Value + cash	Compound value	MSTY sh	WNTR sh
0	Sep 20, 2026	$1,000,000	$0	$1,000,000	$1,000,000	30,340	31,646
1	Sep 19, 2027	$592,966	$407,034	$1,000,000	$1,000,000	50,752	53,800
2	Sep 17, 2028	$351,609	$648,391	$1,000,000	$1,000,000	85,698	90,618
3	Sep 23, 2029	$206,408	$793,592	$1,000,000	$1,000,000	147,571	152,709
4	Sep 22, 2030	$122,393	$877,607	$1,000,000	$1,000,000	248,977	257,422
5	Sep 21, 2031	$72,575	$927,425	$1,000,000	$1,000,000	419,992	434,014

How the model works

Compound uses forward-balance, and never sells. The new cash buys only the lighter half of the 50/50 mix. The locked version 1.1 book on /recipe is a separate rule: each week it buys and sells to get back to 50/50.
The Bitcoin path uses a power-law curve from Santostasi and Perrenod, 10^-16.493 · t^5.688, pinned to today’s price. A power law is a math curve fitted to Bitcoin’s history. The base what-if holds today’s Bitcoin price flat.
MSTR follows Bitcoin with eta (η) = 1.5. Eta is how much we assume MSTR moves when Bitcoin moves. mNAV, the premium of MSTR versus the Bitcoin it holds, stays constant. Before each payout, fund prices use beta (β): MSTY 0.81 and WNTR -0.7. Beta says how much the fund tends to move when MSTR moves. Then the share price drops by the full cash payout.
Recent one-month mode keeps the starting payout rates the same. The 1% per week path is a guess you picked, not the live payout.

Compound here means forward-balance: the cash buys only the lighter half of the 50/50 mix, and the tool never sells. The lighter half is the fund that has fallen below half. The locked book on /recipe still rebalances both ways. Rebalance means buy and sell until the mix is 50/50 again. When the live payout mode is on, the size comes from /api/yields. No paid price feeds. No Flyagonal.