Hold the fund that fell less

This block is a second test. The chart above stays as it is. That chart still starts on Dec 12, 2025, after the reverse split, and it still compares the 7-week plan with a half-and-half line.

A simple moving average is the mean of the last 200 daily closing prices of MSTR. Angling up means today’s average is higher than yesterday’s. Angling down means today’s average is lower. A flat day, when the average does not change, counts for neither direction and breaks the streak. After 10 trading days in a row angling up, hold 100% MSTY. After 10 trading days in a row angling down, hold 100% WNTR. A new direction counts only after those 10 days. Until then, stay in the fund you already hold.

Both fund lines below start on Oct 16, 2025 with $50,000. That is the first trading day of the first week both MSTY and WNTR paid a weekly dividend. The dividend just before that weekly run was Sep 25, 2025, 21 days earlier, so the weekly run begins with the Oct 16, 2025 payment. That week ends on Oct 17, 2025. The reverse split on Dec 8, 2025 is later, so this test does not wait for it. The buy is at the Oct 16, 2025 close. That day’s dividend is not collected, because the shares are bought at the close. Later dividends, while the shares are held overnight, are cash. They are kept off the share-value lines.

On Oct 16, 2025 the 200-day average had already been angling down for 29 trading days, so the purple line opens in WNTR and then switches 0 times. The gold line is the same 7-week rule as the chart above, started on this earlier date. It still opens half and half, and it waits 7 weeks of this window before it can move the whole book. Its ending dollars differ from the chart above, because that chart starts over at $50,000 on Dec 12, 2025.

On this shared window the 7-week plan finished with more share value: $41,866.95 versus $24,044.69 for the 200-day switch. The 200-day switch set aside more dividend cash: $39,528.82 versus $34,666.32 for the 7-week plan. Both share-value lines finished under $50,000.

The purple fund line can start only once both funds exist and pay weekly. MSTR’s own price history is longer, so the lower chart runs the same 10-day rule on MSTR itself, back to Jul 21, 2022. The 200-day average first exists on Jul 20, 2022. The next trading day is the first day it can be compared with the day before.

When the rule would hold MSTY, this line is long MSTR. When the rule would hold WNTR, this line holds cash. The saved file has MSTR closing prices. Cash is a dollar amount that stays the same while you hold it. A made-up short sale would not be a price from that file, and WNTR has its own price, so this chart does not borrow WNTR to stand in for a falling MSTR. The label is MSTR or cash.

The stand-in starts in cash, because 10 days in one direction have not finished yet. The average first locked in a down streak on Aug 3, 2022. The stand-in was already in cash, so that day did not change the holding. After that it changed holdings 4 times: Mar 9, 2023, Jun 2, 2023, Jun 21, 2023, Sep 19, 2025. It ends on Oct 2, 2026 in cash at $745,627.20. The file has no MSTR dividend list, so this line has no dividends set aside.